Random forest regression on joint role of meteorological variables, demographic factors, and policy response measures in COVID-19 daily cases: global analysis in different climate zones.

Different sources of factors in environment can affect the spread of COVID-19 by influencing the diffusion of the virus transmission, but the collective influence of which has hardly been considered. This study aimed to utilize a machine learning algorithm to assess the joint effects of meteorological variables, demographic factors, and government response measures on COVID-19 daily cases globally at city level. Random forest regression models showed that population density was the most crucial determinant for COVID-19 transmission, followed by meteorological variables and response measures. Ultraviolet radiation and temperature dominated meteorological factors, but the associations with daily cases varied across different climate zones. Policy response measures have lag effect in containing the epidemic development, and the pandemic was more effectively contained with stricter response measures implemented, but the generalized measures might not be applicable to all climate conditions. This study explored the roles of demographic factors, meteorological variables, and policy response measures in the transmission of COVID-19, and provided evidence for policymakers that the design of appropriate policies for prevention and preparedness of future pandemics should be based on local climate conditions, population characteristics, and social activity characteristics. Future work should focus on discerning the interactions between numerous factors affecting COVID-19 transmission.

Association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 transmission in low- and middle-income countries: A time-stratified case-crossover study.

BACKGROUND: Evidence is limited regarding the association between meteorological factors and COVID-19 transmission in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). OBJECTIVE: To investigate the independent and interactive effects of temperature, relative humidity (RH), and ultraviolet (UV) radiation on the spread of COVID-19 in LMICs. METHODS: We collected daily data on COVID-19 confirmed cases, meteorological factors and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in 2143 city- and district-level sites from 6 LMICs during 2020. We applied a time-stratified case-crossover design with distributed lag nonlinear model to evaluate the independent and interactive effects of meteorological factors on COVID-19 transmission after controlling NPIs. We generated an overall estimate through pooling site-specific relative risks (RR) using a multivariate meta-regression model. RESULTS: There was a positive, non-linear, association between temperature and COVID-19 confirmed cases in all study sites, while RH and UV showed negative non-linear associations. RR of the 90th percentile temperature (28.1 °C) was 1.14 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.02, 1.28] compared with the 50th percentile temperature (24.4 °C). RR of the10th percentile UV was 1.41 (95% CI: 1.29, 1.54). High temperature and high RH were associated with increased risks in temperate climate but decreased risks in tropical climate, while UV exhibited a consistent, negative association across climate zones. Temperature, RH, and UV interacted to affect COVID-19 transmission. Temperature and RH also showed higher risks in low NPIs sites. CONCLUSION: Temperature, RH, and UV appeared to independently and interactively affect the transmission of COVID-19 in LMICs but such associations varied with climate zones. Our results suggest that more attention should be paid to meteorological variation when the transmission of COVID-19 is still rampant in LMICs.

Prevalence of bovine coronavirus in cattle in China: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Bovine coronavirus (BCoV) is one of the important pathogens that cause calf diarrhea (CD), winter dysentery (WD), and the bovine respiratory disease complex (BRDC), and spreads worldwide. An infection of BCoV in cattle can lead to death of young animals, stunted growth, reduced milk production, and milk quality, thus bringing serious economic losses to the bovine industry. Therefore, it is necessary to prevent and control the spread of BCoV. Here, a systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted to assess the prevalence of BCoV in cattle in China before 2022. A total of 57 articles regarding the prevalence of BCoV in cattle in China were collected from five databases (PubMed, ScienceDirect, CNKI, VIP, and Wan Fang). Based on the inclusion criteria, a total of 15,838 samples were included, and 6,136 were positive cases. The overall prevalence of BCoV was 30.8%, with the highest prevalence rate (60.5%) identified in South China and the lowest prevalence (15.6%) identified in Central China. We also analyzed other subgroup information, included sampling years, sample sources, detection methods, breeding methods, age, type of cattle, presence of diarrhea, and geographic and climatic factors. The results indicated that BCoV was widely prevalent in China. Among all subgroups, the sample sources, detection methods, breeding methods, and presence or absence of diarrheal might be potential risk factors responsible for BCoV prevalence. It is recommended to strengthen the detection of BCoV in cattle, in order to effectively control the spread of BCoV.

Generation and Effect Testing of a SARS-CoV-2 RBD-Targeted Polyclonal Therapeutic Antibody Based on a 2-D Airway Organoid Screening System.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an acute respiratory infectious disease caused by infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). The US FDA has approved several therapeutics and vaccines worldwide through the emergency use authorization in response to the rapid spread of COVID-19. Nevertheless, the efficacies of these treatments are being challenged by viral escape mutations. There is an urgent need to develop effective treatments protecting against SARS-CoV-2 infection and to establish a stable effect-screening model to test potential drugs. Polyclonal antibodies (pAbs) have an intrinsic advantage in such developments because they can target rapidly mutating viral strains as a result of the complexity of their binding epitopes. In this study, we generated anti-receptor-binding domain (anti-RBD) pAbs from rabbit serum and tested their safety and efficacy in response to SARS-CoV-2 infection both in vivo and ex vivo. Primary human bronchial epithelial two-dimensional (2-D) organoids were cultured and differentiated to a mature morphology and subsequently employed for SARS-CoV-2 infection and drug screening. The pAbs protected the airway organoids from viral infection and tissue damage. Potential side effects were tested in mouse models for both inhalation and vein injection. The pAbs displayed effective viral neutralization effects without significant side effects. Thus, the use of animal immune serum-derived pAbs might be a potential therapy for protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection, with the strategy developed to produce these pAbs providing new insight into the treatment of respiratory tract infections, especially for infections with viruses undergoing rapid mutation.

Construction and Immunogenicity Comparison of Three Virus-Like Particles Carrying Different Combinations of Structural Proteins of Avian Coronavirus Infectious Bronchitis Virus.

Infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) poses massive economic losses in the global poultry industry. Here, we firstly report the construction and immunogenicity comparison of virus-like particles (VLPs) carrying the S, M and E proteins (SME-VLPs); VLPs carrying the S and M proteins (SM-VLPs); and VLPs carrying the M and E proteins (ME-VLPs) from the dominant serotype representative strain GX-YL5 in China. The neutralizing antibody response induced by the SME-VLPs was similar to that induced by the inactivated oil vaccine (OEV) of GX-YL5, and higher than those induced by the SM-VLPs, ME-VLPs and commercial live vaccine H120. More importantly, the SME-VLPs elicited higher percentages of CD4+ and CD8+ T lymphocytes than the SM-VLPs, ME-VLPs and OEV of GX-YL5. Compared with the OEV of GX-YL5, higher levels of IL-4 and IFN-γ were also induced by the SME-VLPs. Moreover, the mucosal immune response (sIgA) induced by the SME-VLPs in the tear and oral swabs was comparable to that induced by the H120 vaccine and higher than that induced by the OEV of GX-YL5. In the challenge experiment, the SME-VLPs resulted in significantly lower viral RNA levels in the trachea and higher protection scores than the OEV of GX-YL5 and H120 vaccines, and induced comparable viral RNA levels in the kidneys, and tear and oral swabs to the OEV of GX-YL5. In summary, among the three VLPs, the SME-VLPs carrying the S, M and E proteins of IBV could stimulate the strongest humoral, cellular and mucosal immune responses and provide effective protection, indicating that it would be an attractive vaccine candidate for IB.

Insight into the practical performance of RT-PCR testing for SARS-CoV-2 using serological data: a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Virological detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) through RT-PCR has limitations for surveillance. Serological tests can be an important complementary approach. We aimed to assess the practical performance of RT-PCR-based surveillance protocols and determine the extent of undetected SARS-CoV-2 infection in Shenzhen, China. METHODS: We did a cohort study in Shenzhen, China and attempted to recruit by telephone all RT-PCR-negative close contacts (defined as those who lived in the same residence as, or shared a meal, travelled, or socially interacted with, an index case within 2 days before symptom onset) of all RT-PCR-confirmed cases of SARS-CoV-2 detected since January, 2020, via contact tracing. We measured anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in serum samples from RT-PCR-negative close contacts 2-15 weeks after initial virological testing by RT-PCR, using total antibody, IgG, and IgM ELISAs. In addition, we did a serosurvey of volunteers from neighbourhoods with no reported cases, and from neighbourhoods with reported cases. We assessed rates of infection undetected by RT-PCR, performance of RT-PCR over the course of infection, and characteristics of individuals who were seropositive on total antibody ELISA but RT-PCR negative. FINDINGS: Between April 12 and May 4, 2020, we enrolled and collected serological samples from 2345 (53·0%) of 4422 RT-PCR-negative close contacts of cases of RT-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2. 1175 (50·1%) of 2345 were close contacts of cases diagnosed in Shenzhen with contact tracing details, and of these, 880 (74·9%) had serum samples collected more than 2 weeks after exposure to an index case and were included in our analysis. 40 (4·5%) of 880 RT-PCR-negative close contacts were positive on total antibody ELISA. The seropositivity rate with total antibody ELISA among RT-PCR-negative close contacts, adjusted for assay performance, was 4·1% (95% CI 2·9-5·7), which was significantly higher than among individuals residing in neighbourhoods with no reported cases (0·0% [95% CI 0·0-1·1]). RT-PCR-positive individuals were 8·0 times (95% CI 5·3-12·7) more likely to report symptoms than those who were RT-PCR-negative but seropositive, but both groups had a similar distribution of sex, age, contact frequency, and mode of contact. RT-PCR did not detect 48 (36% [95% CI 28-44]) of 134 infected close contacts, and false-negative rates appeared to be associated with stage of infection. INTERPRETATION: Even rigorous RT-PCR testing protocols might miss a substantial proportion of SARS-CoV-2 infections, perhaps in part due to difficulties in determining the timing of testing in asymptomatic individuals for optimal sensitivity. RT-PCR-based surveillance and control protocols that include rapid contact tracing, universal RT-PCR testing, and mandatory 2-week quarantine were, nevertheless, able to contain community spread in Shenzhen, China. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Special Foundation of Science and Technology Innovation Strategy of Guangdong Province, and Key Project of Shenzhen Science and Technology Innovation Commission.

Epidemiology and transmission of COVID-19 in 391 cases and 1286 of their close contacts in Shenzhen, China: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, China, prompted heightened surveillance in Shenzhen, China. The resulting data provide a rare opportunity to measure key metrics of disease course, transmission, and the impact of control measures. METHODS: From Jan 14 to Feb 12, 2020, the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention identified 391 SARS-CoV-2 cases and 1286 close contacts. We compared cases identified through symptomatic surveillance and contact tracing, and estimated the time from symptom onset to confirmation, isolation, and admission to hospital. We estimated metrics of disease transmission and analysed factors influencing transmission risk. FINDINGS: Cases were older than the general population (mean age 45 years) and balanced between males (n=187) and females (n=204). 356 (91%) of 391 cases had mild or moderate clinical severity at initial assessment. As of Feb 22, 2020, three cases had died and 225 had recovered (median time to recovery 21 days; 95% CI 20-22). Cases were isolated on average 4·6 days (95% CI 4·1-5·0) after developing symptoms; contact tracing reduced this by 1·9 days (95% CI 1·1-2·7). Household contacts and those travelling with a case were at higher risk of infection (odds ratio 6·27 [95% CI 1·49-26·33] for household contacts and 7·06 [1·43-34·91] for those travelling with a case) than other close contacts. The household secondary attack rate was 11·2% (95% CI 9·1-13·8), and children were as likely to be infected as adults (infection rate 7·4% in children <10 years vs population average of 6·6%). The observed reproductive number (R) was 0·4 (95% CI 0·3-0·5), with a mean serial interval of 6·3 days (95% CI 5·2-7·6). INTERPRETATION: Our data on cases as well as their infected and uninfected close contacts provide key insights into the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. This analysis shows that isolation and contact tracing reduce the time during which cases are infectious in the community, thereby reducing the R. The overall impact of isolation and contact tracing, however, is uncertain and highly dependent on the number of asymptomatic cases. Moreover, children are at a similar risk of infection to the general population, although less likely to have severe symptoms; hence they should be considered in analyses of transmission and control. FUNDING: Emergency Response Program of Harbin Institute of Technology, Emergency Response Program of Peng Cheng Laboratory, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.